The conference publication of the Vision Europe Summit 2017 is now available for download. Our experts will present the content at the summit, and the ideas and recommendations expressed in this publication will serve as a background for the discussions.
The aim of this paper by Thieß Petersen (Senior Advisor, Bertelsmann Stiftung, Gütersloh) is to identify winners and losers of economic globalisation. The focus lies on the income and employment effects in advanced economies and the implications of these effects for the growing criticism of globalisation in these countries
Elhanan Helpman, Professor of International Trade at Harvard University and Fellow of the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research, will give a lecture on "Globalisation and Inequality" for the Inauguration of the Academic Year 2017-2018 at the Collegio Carlo Alberto (Turin, Italy) on November 3rd 2017.
CASE authored a study on the VAT Gap in the European Union in 2015 commissioned by the European Commission. In 2015, the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States amounted to EUR 151.5 billion. In absolute terms, the highest VAT Gap of €35 billion was in Italy. The VAT Gap decreased in most Member States, with the strongest improvements in Malta, Romania and Spain.
Negotiations on the North American Free Trade Agreement will go into the third round on 23-27 September in Ottawa. In this blog post, Ulrich Schoof from Bertelsmann Stiftung analyzes the benefits and negative effects of NAFTA. The outcome of the negotiations is open: Both a successful modernization of the trade deal as well as a complete failure of the negotiations are conceivable.
This report is the culmination of a study by Bruegel, Chatham House, the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and the Institute of Global Economics and Finance at The Chinese University of Hong Kong. It identifies key trends and areas of potential economic collaboration in the coming decade focusing on opportunities as well as challenges for cooperation.
In this blog post Thieß Petersen from Bertelsmann Stiftung asks to what extent African countries have benefited from globalisation. In Africa the share of the overall population living in poverty decreased from 54 per cent to only 41 per cent between 1990 and 2013. Furthermore, African economies are reporting high current account deficits, which indicates low international competitiveness. Considered in this way, African countries have been left behind by globalization.
This podcast of Bruegel's series "The Sound of Economics" focuses on trade multilateralism. André Sapir explains the benefits of multilateral trade agreements. Arancha González, executive director of the International Trade Center, makes a strong case against protectionsism. Petra Pinzler, journalist and author, highlights the weaknesses in some narrow economic thinking about trade, and Guntram Wolff, Bruegel’s director, discusses Europe’s place in the multilateral trade system.
Based on a major survey across 10 EU countries, this report published by Chatham House shows a lack of consensus among the elite over the future of EU integration - and a pronounced divide within the public on issues of identity. This unique survey conducted between December 2016 and February 2017makes clear that EU politics has moved from a period in which it was mediating between an integrationist political class and an occasionally sceptical public to one in which there is a more mixed picture among both groups.
While Europeans generally appear to be united by a development model trying to reconcile economic efficiency, social cohesion, and protection of the environment in a democratic framework, some rather highlight their differences and reject the European project. Can we not, on the contrary, consolidate the construction of Europe by reaffirming our common identity? In this synthesis of a Round Table organized by the Jacques Delors Institute, in partnership with the Gulbenkian Foundation, Luc Vincent presents the main analysis and recommendations formulated during this round table.
A new focus paper published by Bertelsmann Stiftung's GED projectsuggests that the complementarity between openness to trade and a strong welfare state weakened over time. While trade – the key driver of globalisation – improves net welfare, it comes with increased vulnerability to external shocks, decline of certain sectors of the economy, etc. In order to insure against these side-effects, a strong welfare state is needed. However, while globalisation is accelerating, the welfare state stagnates.
Talks between India and the EU about a possible Free Trade Agreement (FTA) have been going on for some while now and have been anything but easy so far. There are many hurdles to take before both sides will be able to agree to a deal. This study, published by the Global Economic Dynamics Project, examines the economic effects such an agreement could potentially have.
In this new blogpost CASE economist Iakov Frizis analysis the victory of Emmanuel Macron in the french presidential elections and the upcoming political and economic challenges.
New research by Uuriintuya Batsaikhan and Zsolt Darvas.
The general political mood on both sides of the Atlantic seems to suggest declining public support for globalisation, but people in the EU increasingly see globalisation as an opportunity for economic growth. This shift in public opinion coincides with improved economic conditions.
"Globalisation as an opportunity for economic growth". Blue: EU north (Finland, Germany, Denmark, Ireland, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom) Red: EU west (Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg) Orange: EU south (Cyprus, Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal) Green: EU east 11 (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovenia Slovakia) Pink: France.
Source: Eurobarometer. Question: Please tell me to what extent you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Globalisation is an opportunity for economic growth”. Share of those respondents who replied “Totally agree” and “Tend to agree” among those who answered this question. Average of the May and November survey results for each year.
Hugo de Seabra, Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation Project Manager for Vision Europe, presented at the FEMISE (Forum Euro-Méditerranéen des Instituts de Sciences Economiques) annual Conference, on 29 April, the Vision Europe 2016 conclusions and recommendations following the publication “Improving the Responses to the Migration and Refugees Crisis in Europe”, dedicating special attention to the Conference Declaration “Building Common Ground: Towards strategic migration and refugee policies in Europe”.
The FEMISE annual conference “Migration and Refugees’ Crisis in the EU – Med: Dawn of an Era of Shared Responsibility?” was held in Casablanca from 29 to 30 April 2017.
In this policy paper, Elvire Fabry, senior research fellow at the Jacques Delors Institute, analyses the factors that will prevail in Washington’s initiatives et outlines two scenarios allowing to decipher the way in which these various parameters might be played out:
• An aggressive economic nationalism;
• A protectionist megaphone with limited disruption.