This CASE report aims to derive the characteristics of an effective fiscal governance framework, focusing on the incentives that ensure a commitment to the fiscal rules. It studies this problem with the use of econometric tools, complementing the analysis with formal modelling through the lens of a dynamic principal-agent framework. The study shows that both economic and institutional factors play an important role in incentivising countries’ fiscal efforts.
Drawing on insights from a series of scenario workshops and case studies, this report examines the major influencing factors in recent US and European foreign policy decision-making. It argues that while the transatlantic relationship may currently be traversing a period of divergence, this need not lead to a structural split over the longer term as the fundamentals in relations between the US and Europe remain strong.
Right-wing conservative parties are mobilizing votes throughout Europe with their criticism of globalization and the EU; centrist parties cannot agree about how best to respond to this policy of rejection. The current edition of eupinions, a survey published by the Bertelsmann Stiftung, shows what Europeans think about globalization and the role the EU should play. For many Europeans a policy of isolation and nationalism is not an appropriate response to the challenges of globalization. They expect European policy to deal above all with questions of security and migration.
Tariffs are the most visible instrument for protecting domestic companies against foreign competition. So-called non-tariff barriers to trade (NTBs) are less visible. NTBs include import quantities, registration formalities for imports or state aid for domestic suppliers. This study, published by the Global Economic Dynamics project of Bertelsmann Stiftung shows that NTBs implemented worldwide between 2010 and 2015 have been responsible for roughly 16 percent of the decline in global trade.
The interface between knowledge and decision-making is broken. Societal discussion surrounding this interface over the past few years reveals several disappointments and a frustrated atmosphere. The results from a survey Sitra conducted in the summer of 2017 reinforce this notion and presents new interpretations
The conference publication of the Vision Europe Summit 2017 is now available for download. Our experts will present the content at the summit, and the ideas and recommendations expressed in this publication will serve as a background for the discussions.
The aim of this paper by Thieß Petersen (Senior Advisor, Bertelsmann Stiftung, Gütersloh) is to identify winners and losers of economic globalisation. The focus lies on the income and employment effects in advanced economies and the implications of these effects for the growing criticism of globalisation in these countries
Elhanan Helpman, Professor of International Trade at Harvard University and Fellow of the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research, will give a lecture on "Globalisation and Inequality" for the Inauguration of the Academic Year 2017-2018 at the Collegio Carlo Alberto (Turin, Italy) on November 3rd 2017.
CASE authored a study on the VAT Gap in the European Union in 2015 commissioned by the European Commission. In 2015, the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States amounted to EUR 151.5 billion. In absolute terms, the highest VAT Gap of €35 billion was in Italy. The VAT Gap decreased in most Member States, with the strongest improvements in Malta, Romania and Spain.
Negotiations on the North American Free Trade Agreement will go into the third round on 23-27 September in Ottawa. In this blog post, Ulrich Schoof from Bertelsmann Stiftung analyzes the benefits and negative effects of NAFTA. The outcome of the negotiations is open: Both a successful modernization of the trade deal as well as a complete failure of the negotiations are conceivable.
This report is the culmination of a study by Bruegel, Chatham House, the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and the Institute of Global Economics and Finance at The Chinese University of Hong Kong. It identifies key trends and areas of potential economic collaboration in the coming decade focusing on opportunities as well as challenges for cooperation.
In this blog post Thieß Petersen from Bertelsmann Stiftung asks to what extent African countries have benefited from globalisation. In Africa the share of the overall population living in poverty decreased from 54 per cent to only 41 per cent between 1990 and 2013. Furthermore, African economies are reporting high current account deficits, which indicates low international competitiveness. Considered in this way, African countries have been left behind by globalization.
This podcast of Bruegel's series "The Sound of Economics" focuses on trade multilateralism. André Sapir explains the benefits of multilateral trade agreements. Arancha González, executive director of the International Trade Center, makes a strong case against protectionsism. Petra Pinzler, journalist and author, highlights the weaknesses in some narrow economic thinking about trade, and Guntram Wolff, Bruegel’s director, discusses Europe’s place in the multilateral trade system.
Based on a major survey across 10 EU countries, this report published by Chatham House shows a lack of consensus among the elite over the future of EU integration - and a pronounced divide within the public on issues of identity. This unique survey conducted between December 2016 and February 2017makes clear that EU politics has moved from a period in which it was mediating between an integrationist political class and an occasionally sceptical public to one in which there is a more mixed picture among both groups.
While Europeans generally appear to be united by a development model trying to reconcile economic efficiency, social cohesion, and protection of the environment in a democratic framework, some rather highlight their differences and reject the European project. Can we not, on the contrary, consolidate the construction of Europe by reaffirming our common identity? In this synthesis of a Round Table organized by the Jacques Delors Institute, in partnership with the Gulbenkian Foundation, Luc Vincent presents the main analysis and recommendations formulated during this round table.
A new focus paper published by Bertelsmann Stiftung's GED projectsuggests that the complementarity between openness to trade and a strong welfare state weakened over time. While trade – the key driver of globalisation – improves net welfare, it comes with increased vulnerability to external shocks, decline of certain sectors of the economy, etc. In order to insure against these side-effects, a strong welfare state is needed. However, while globalisation is accelerating, the welfare state stagnates.